Death, Taxes, and Reversion to the Mean / Michael Mauboussin’s latest paper on reversion to the mean – why high return on capital can’t stay high forever – incorporating reversion to the mean in DCF valuations – “Good to great” and “Great to good”.
I came across Shahin Khezri’s blog a few days ago, and really enjoyed his post “Lessons From Ted Williams“. Shahin talks about Buffett’s comparison of the stock market to baseball. The market throws thousands of pitches a day, but you must decide which to swing at and which to let fly by. The difference between an investor and a baseball player is that the investor never has to swing. Great investors like Buffett don’t swing very often, even if the ball is in the strike zone. They wait for the obvious ones—the fat pitches—that can be hit out of the ballpark almost every time.
Reflections on Value Investing points readers to Authors@Google – a series of talks with respected authors hosted by Google. I’ve only watched the talk with George Soros (which was very good), but many of the other talks look interesting. See also my post on the TED Talk Videos.