Comments for FutureBlind

Comment on Early Berkshire Hathaway Letters by Jeff

Jeff — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 01:30:57 +0000

Great stuff, Max. Thank you very much. The table of Buffett’s holdings is also very interesting. I remember Buffett stating several times that he had put a huge portion of his NW in GEICO when he was young. Same deal with Western Insurance.

Comment on 3 Interesting 13F Buys (Q2-08) by Jeff

Jeff — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 17:36:21 +0000

Thanks Max. These posts are terrific. Very interesting to see those boys take a position in Dr. Pepper. No doubt we’ll see some fireworks pretty soon.

Comment on Dr Pepper Snapple: Spin-off Bargain? by 3 Interesting 13F Buys (Q2-08) | FutureBlind

3 Interesting 13F Buys (Q2-08) | FutureBlind — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 17:16:15 +0000

[…] Schweppes and traded in the $20-26 range until the end of the quarter. Shortly after the spin-off, I wrote this post citing Dr Pepper as a potential bargain. It looks like some large activist investors took my […]

Comment on An Early Christmas for Value Investors by Paul

Paul — Wed, 09 Jul 2008 11:24:05 +0000

Two blockbusters back to back is going to make for some great fall reading. I can’t wait. I’m more interesting in what some of today’s greats have to say about Graham and Dodd.

Comment on Dr Pepper Snapple: Spin-off Bargain? by snapple 1988

snapple 1988 — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 07:47:20 +0000

[…] began to trade. … In 1988 and 1989, Warren Buffett loaded up on shares of Coca-Cola at a split …http://www.futureblind.com/2008/05/dr-pepper-snapple-spin-off-bargain/Dr Pepper Snapple Group, Inc., - Leadership TeamYoung was elected a director in October 2007 upon […]

Comment on 4 Interesting 13F Buys (Q1-08) by Ranni

Ranni — Thu, 05 Jun 2008 07:52:48 +0000

“See the VIC Writeup for more details. Charlie Ergan, Chairman and major shareholder, is extremely smart and should never be underestimated.”

Recent Insider Trading Activity: EchoStar Corp
Date Name Transaction Num Shares Price(s) Value
05/16/08 VOGEL CARL E Sold 53,700 $33.40 1.79 Mil
05/16/08 VOGEL CARL E Sold 8,300 $33.83 280,789.00

These are heavy amounts…

Comment on Berkshire Part 2: Selling Puts by Aaron

Aaron — Sat, 31 May 2008 14:45:53 +0000

4.5BN in premiums sounds about right — and of course the potential losses could be much larger than 4.5BN depending on the path of the market. I believe he’s selling mostly to Life insurers to help offset the mark-to-market portion of variable annuity living benefit guarantees

I imagine Buffett is actually hedging the Delta position of the options and isolating Vega (since that’s where the illiquidity premium exists). This is probably a good bet — the implied vols are outrageous over such a long-term period (~30%)

FYI - The 15% return assumption –> 36BN in premium value is pretty spurious — such an optimistic outlook would make selling 20-year CDs at 10% look like a windfall even though it would represent blinding stupidity. Something tells me Buffett doesn’t run his company that way

Comment on Dr Pepper Snapple: Spin-off Bargain? by George

George — Mon, 26 May 2008 01:17:15 +0000

Thanks for sharing the details on the amount of equity Buffett obtained in this deal. I thought he was only lending to Mars, I didn’t realize that he had bought $2 billion in equity.

Comment on 5 Interesting 13F Buys (Q4-07) by 4 Interesting 13F Buys (Q1-08) | FutureBlind

4 Interesting 13F Buys (Q1-08) | FutureBlind — Sun, 18 May 2008 16:12:01 +0000

[…] buys archive: Third Quarter 2007; Fourth Quarter 2007 Related link: Search for filings on the SEC […]

Comment on 4 Interesting 13F Buys (Q1-08) by AlexG

AlexG — Fri, 16 May 2008 03:33:38 +0000

You can also add UNH. Greenberg and Buffett reported positions. in the case of Buffett, he increased his position by 400k shares.