Berkshire Hathaway 1969 & 1971 Shareholder Letters

1973 Shareholder Letter

1976 Shareholder Letter

In the 1976 letter, equity investments are listed, and GEICO accounts for 31% of total holdings. I don’t believe these include any equities purchased through Blue Chip Stamps. That’s a fairly large position for most modern-day funds. However, it doesn’t compare to the concentration of Buffett’s portfolio before he managed other people’s money: (in the 1950’s, courtesy of Robert Miles)

UPDATE: I reformatted both letters into PDF’s to make them a little more readable. For the PDF formats, follow these links: 1969; 1971

1. Dr Pepper Snapple Group, Inc. (DPS)
Nelson Peltz (Trian), David Einhorn (Greenlight), Bill Ackman (Pershing)

In May, Dr Pepper was spun off of Cadbury Schweppes and traded in the $20-26 range until the end of the quarter. Shortly after the spin-off, I wrote this post citing Dr Pepper as a potential bargain. It looks like some large activist investors took my advice, loading up on DPS during the second quarter. (Peltz received shares from his Cadbury stake.) All together, the three managers own just over 13% of the entire company. In fact, I’m not sure why Pershing Square hasn’t been required to file a 13D/13G with over 5% of the company.

All three of these investors have been known to be activists. So, if they continue to acquire shares, one of them may attempt to influence management. One possibility for value creation is to sell or spin-off Dr Pepper’s bottling operations. This is a much lower margin, capital intensive business than selling syrup concentrate (their primary profit source). In 1986, Coca-Cola spun off its bottling operations as Coca-Cola Enterprises. Less than two years later, Warren Buffett acquired his stake.

2. American Express Company (AXP)
Ken Shubin Stein (Spencer), Glenn Greenberg (Chieftain)

Ken Shubin Stein made the case for American Express both at the Value Investing Congress and at Value Investors Club. The basic thesis is that American Express has a huge moat, and it’s price has be knocked down due to concerns about the economy and temporary issues with bad debt. It looks like these problems are either based on short-term sentiment, or are easily fixable by AMEX management. This is a typical Buffett-type investment, and has been named by some as a potential takeover target for Buffett himself (he already owns 13%).

3. Pfizer Inc. (PFE)
Bruce Berkowitz (Fairholme)

The Fairholme Fund’s acquisition of Pfizer shares is not surprising, and fits in with their recent theme of buying healthcare stocks. I could speculate the specific reasons for this purchase, but it’s probably best to hear it straight from Bruce Berkowitz:

$17 billion of free cash, which turns out to be over $2 per share of free cash for a triple-A quality company. This is the largest pharmaceutical company in the world trading under $20 per share.

[…] they are all worried about Lipitor and the new president. Lipitor doesn’t come off patent for another three years, and the company is dramatically changing. There is a new CEO with a wonderful strategy.

You will see Pfizer, in my opinion, do a lot more joint ventures. I think they will become almost like Exxon Mobil, which is really a merchant bank that has the distribution, size and cash to partner up with a lot of people around the world. Pfizer will do that. People just don’t realize the number of joint ventures they have and the power of their distribution channel.

Disclosure: As of its writing, we have no interest in any company mentioned in this post.

In Saturday’s Wall Street Journal, Elizabeth Wurtzel wrote an opinion piece titled “The Internet Is Ruining America’s Movies and Music.” She talks about how both businesses aren’t like they used to be, because of—you guessed it—the internet.

It’s easy to understand why many people in both the music and movie industries long for the good old days. They used to exist in government-sanctioned oligopolies where consumers had little choice in where their entertainment came from. Whether it was the three network TV stations, limited spectrum for radio, or your local theater being the only option for a movie. Here’s a passage from Wurtzel’s article:

In the era of the online music store — even if you buy from iTunes rather than stealing from LimeWire, the problem is the same — no one knows how to listen to a complete album anymore. Everything is slanted toward the hit single. This means that the music industry is oriented toward one-hit wonders rather than consummate musicians, and talent development is just not worth the trouble.

In reality, the opposite is true. One-hit wonders have always dominated sales in the music industry. This won’t change anytime soon—there will always be the megahits in the “head” of the long-tail. Places like iTunes or Netflix allow the obscure musicians and moviemakers to find some kind of an audience. Also, in the past, if I liked only one song from an artist, I may not purchase their album at all. Now, I can at least get the song I like.

In fact, 47% of our gross domestic product involves intellectual property (IP) transactions, and about 6% of our national worth — $626.6 billion annually — is from our copyright businesses. These are the segments of our economy that are suffering, or stand to do so, as a result of the Internet. The Internet, glorious as it is, should be thought of as the plague of postmodernity.

Because the internet (and computers in general) makes it easier to copy things, people like to blame it for destroying intellectual property rights. Yes, the internet has changed the dynamic for the media companies. But technology radically affecting an industry is nothing new. There are many reasons why the internet has changed media for the better. (more…)

Tom Brown recently posted a rebuttal to Jason Zweig’s Wall Street Journal column. Geoff Gannon also wrote a great follow-up article with more on Benjamin Graham. I suggest reading all three articles.

In this post, I wanted to comment on a few aspects of Tom Brown’s argument, some of which I have been thinking about lately. The following is a quote from Tom’s post:

True value investors, by contrast, tend not to worry what might happen in the interim. Instead, they come up with their best estimate of a financial company’s intrinsic value by estimating the magnitude of likely losses along with its “normalized” earnings level two or three years out. They then compare that estimate of intrinsic value with the stock’s price today. Zweig says such estimates are impossible. I disagree.

I have always enjoyed Tom’s posts, but I can see a few problems with the above statement. (As a disclaimer, I know relatively little about financial companies, as they are out of my circle of competence. I hold no interest in any financial beside Berkshire Hathaway.)

First observation:
With highly leveraged financial companies, what happens in the “interim” can not only hurt you, it can kill you. Compare a bank to a retailer. Let’s say that you find a cheap retailer, where you estimate normalized earnings a few years out to derive its value. Assuming your estimate is correct, you should be able to ride out any short-term volatility to obtain the long-term value of the company. Like Tom says, that is the foundation of value investing. (more…)

Benjamin Zander: Classical music with shining eyes

Benjamin Zander has two infectious passions: classical music, and helping us all realize our untapped love for it — and by extension, our untapped love for all new possibilities, new experiences, new connections. [See Zander’s book “The Art of Possibility“].

Chris Abani tells stories of people: People standing up to soldiers. People being compassionate. People being human and reclaiming their humanity. It’s “ubuntu,” he says: the only way for me to be human is for you to reflect my humanity back at me. [See his first TED speech here].

Sir Ken Robinson makes an entertaining and profoundly moving case for creating an education system that nurtures (rather than undermines) creativity. [This is an old talk, but if you’ve never seen it, stop everything you’re doing and watch it now.]

This year, it comes three months early for those in the world of value investing. The following two books will be released at the end of September:

September 26 — Security Analysis: Sixth Edition

After a 20 year hiatus, McGraw-Hill is releasing the latest updated edition of Ben Graham’s original Security Analysis. The update includes: a forward by Warren Buffett; a chapter by James Grant; introductions by Howard Marks, Bruce Berkowitz, and Bruce Greenwald; and commentary from Seth Klarman, Roger Lowenstein, and Glenn Greenberg. An impressive lineup. New subjects will include international investing, hedge funds, absolute return strategies, and the efficient market hypothesis.

September 30 — The Snowball: Warren Buffett and the Business of Life

The definitive, nearly 1,000 page biography on Warren Buffett. Written by Alice Schroeder, the insurance analyst who caught Buffett’s eye after her report on Berkshire Hathaway. Much has been written about Buffett’s life, but never from his perspective. My guess is that many details will emerge about Buffett’s personality and the mindset that makes him the greatest investor of all time.

1. WellCare Health Plans (WCG) — Pabrai Investments, Fairholme Fund — I don’t know much about healthcare companies, but Wellcare seems like it might be a very low risk, high uncertainty situation. Recently, a summary of Pabrai’s thesis on Wellcare was posted on the Value Investing Congress Blog. Using the last quarter with information available, WCG is trading at an EV/EBIT of about 1.8x (!).

2. EchoStar Corp. (SATS) — Greenlight Capital, Fairholme Fund (spin-out) — Spun off from Dish Network (formerly EchoStar) back in January. Has multiple holdings, including a set-top box business, SlingMedia, and 7 satellites. SATS could be extremely undervalued if you add up the valuations of its separate companies. See the VIC Writeup for more details. Charlie Ergan, Chairman and major shareholder, is extremely smart and should never be underestimated.

3. WellPoint Inc. (WLP) — Springhouse Capital, Greenlight Capital, Fairholme Fund, Berkshire Hathaway, Baupost Group — Quite the lineup. Another beat-down healthcare company, but with less uncertainty. If you net out cash and unrelated investments, enterprise value is about $16B. Pre-tax income in the past year was $5.3B. So, even if WLP has lower earnings going forward, it’s trading for only 3x EBIT. It may pay to find out. (By the looks of it, healthcare companies must have a thing for logos with little swively waves in them.)

4. American Woodmark (AMWD) — Stadium Capital, Akre Capital, Fine Capital — A manufacturer and distributer of wood cabinets. Trading at about 8x TTM pre-tax free cash flow. It looks like they haven’t done well in the last few years, but if they can get back on track this is a very cheap stock. I don’t know a lot about wood prices, but it looks like gross margins have fluctuated widely in the past.

13F buys archive: Third Quarter 2007; Fourth Quarter 2007
Related link: Search for filings on the SEC website

Disclosure: We own a small position in SATS. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

On a freezing day in March 2007, Nassim Taleb walked into a conference room at Morgan Stanley’s Manhattan offices on 47th Street and Broadway to address a group of the firm’s risk managers. His message: Your models don’t work.

Using a whiteboard to scribble out his calculations, Taleb, now 48, began one of his rants, this time against stress tests–Wall Street lingo for examining how a market rout will play out. Stress tests are inherently risky because they ignore rare but potentially devastating events, Taleb said.

See the Full Article here

It’s always interesting to see what other investors or thinkers have on their bookshelf. In the introduction to the article, there’s a picture of Nassim Taleb in his library. Using the hard copy, I picked out a few books that Taleb has read (or hasn’t read, by Umberto Eco standards). These should be useful for expanding one’s network of mental models:

• Darwin’s Dangerous Idea, by Daniel Dennett
• Collapse, by Jared Diamond
• Guns, Germs and Steel, by Jared Diamond
• The Selfish Gene, by Richard Dawkins
• Rational Herds, by Christophe Chamley
• The Perception of Risk, by Paul Slovic
• Knowledge and Decisions, by Thomas Sowell
• Serendipity, by Royston Roberts
• The Construction of Preference, by Sarah Lichtenstein and Paul Slovic
• Evolutionary Dynamics, by Martin Nowak
• The Quark and the Jaguar, by Murray Gell-Mann
• Why Beauty is Truth, by Ian Stewart
• The Eastern Origins of Western Civilization, by John Hobson
• For and Against Method, by Imre Lakatos and Paul Feyerabend
• Probability via Expectation, by Peter Whittle
• Probability Theory, by E. T. Jaynes
• Plight of the Fortune Tellers, by Riccardo Rebonato
• Imperfect Knowledge Economics, by Roman Frydman and Michael Goldberg
• The Business of Options, by Martin O’Connell
• The Logic of Scientific Discovery, by Karl Popper
• Unmaking the West, by Philip Tetlock

On another note, I have joined the team of authors at Reflections on Value Investing. If you haven’t already, head over and subscribe to the RSS feed. It’s a must for any value investor. Although this was posted at both sites, for the most part, my occasional posts at Reflections will have different content than FutureBlind.

On Wednesday the 7th, Dr Pepper Snapple Group (DPS) officially began to trade. Its $25 price tag is lower than many expected after the soft-drink maker was spun-off of its parent company, Cadbury Schweppes.

Because spin-offs in general beat the market (and can make for excellent hunting grounds), I’m always looking for potential purchases. DPS stands out because of its well recognized brand names, competitive advantage, and unique spin-off situation.

Cadbury, its prior owner, trades on the London Stock Exchange. But when DPS was spun-off, it traded on the NYSE. This is a problem for mutual funds and institutions in the UK that owned Cadbury. They can’t or don’t want to hold a foreign-traded security. So more than likely (this may have already started), these institutions will sell their newly received DPS shares without regard to price.

Some of the brands of DPS include: Dr Pepper, Snapple, 7 UP, Motts, Sunkist, A&W, Hawaiian Punch. This post isn’t meant to be a complete analysis of the investment, just my initial thoughts on a potential opportunity.

Comparisons

The table below compares DPS with other soft-drink and consumer goods companies. (more…)

Phil Gordon Answers Your Poker Questions / Great interview with poker pro Phil Gordon where he talks about randomness, psychology and the future of card playing.

Not-So-Free Ride: The trouble with negative externalities / On creating better-aligned incentives to deal with the effects of cars and the environment/costs to society. Perhaps some good suggestions for Buffett’s GEICO subsidiary.

This article by Sanjay Bakshi courtesy of Reflections on Value Investing explores the sunk-cost fallacy and the endowment effect. Both good heuristics to be aware of when making decisions.